Pindell Report: Md. has one of the country's top House races
By Politicker Staff
Maryland's 1st Congressional District is on a list of the most-competitive U.S. House races in the country, a new Politicker.com report shows.
The race, between Republican state Sen. Andy Harris and Democrat Frank Kratovil's in the Eastern Shore-based district, ranks as the 51st most-competitive House race of the 435 taking place this year.
"Andy Harris's impressive primary win over incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest demonstrated he knows how to win," said Politicker.com Managing Editor James Pindell, author of The Pindell Report. "And understandably Democrats in the state, particularly Chris Van Hollen see this seat as an opportunity," referring to the Kensington lawmaker who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The Pindell Report aims to provide the country's most dynamic and richly reported ranking and analysis of U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial races, plus presidential swing states.
The non-partisan report ranks races in order of their competitiveness. Therefore the No. 1 race in the country is the most likely to be decided by one vote. The race ranked last is believed to have a larger margin of victory -- no matter if it is a Republican win or Democratic win. In determining competitiveness the reports takes into account polling, fundraising, past election data, demographic changes and interviews with the nation's top political strategists. The report also heavily uses Politicker.com's reporters out in the field covering these elections for the network's state-based websites. The rankings are evaluated daily ensuring rankings are current.
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- Oct 23 2008
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its 51st...
Which barely even makes it into your rankings. Since 95% of incumbents are re-elected in the US House then you have to figure that the remaining non-incumbent held seats would by default fall into the remaining 5%. In this case, you're talking about 11% and half the list above them are incumbents.
It'll be decided by 10+ points. What's that tell you about the rest of the rankings? Every MD political junky has been surprised at how crappy Franklin Kratovil has ran his race. He has been beat to the punch every single time by Andrew Harris.
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