Why Maryland's First ain't Mississippi's

A Democrat’s victory in the special House election in Mississippi’s First District has sent Republican candidates ducking for cover – at the behest of their own campaigns chair, no less.

Two other GOP districts have recently fallen into the hands of Democrats, but the Mississippi district has a strikingly similar federal voting history to the First in this state.

So does that mean Andy Harris is in big, big trouble? No, not necessarily.

Generic arguments go something like:

1. The Republican candidates were weak and the Democrats were strong.
2. There was little time, so these races were more a referendum on the state of the country than a decision between two candidates.
3. Lots and lots of outside money that most Democrats will not have in a district like that.

Of course, those arguments would look like swiss cheese once someone paying close attention got through with them.

But there are some very credible arguments in Harris’ favor.

1. Unlike Mississippi, where the Democrat, Travis Childers, described himself as a “conservative Democrat,” Frank Kratovil is calling himself a "moderate Democrat." Harris, who will stand for nothing less than being called conservative, has a proven track record in painting self-described moderates as “liberals.” (See: Gilchrest, Wayne).
2. Childers’ conservative record was backed up by his pro-life, anti-tax positions. This made it hard for the Republicans ‘liberal label’ to stick. Kratovil has stated he is pro-choice and has tied himself to those responsible for the state’s major tax increases.
3. Whereas the Republicans in Mississippi tried to tether Childers to Barack Obama and other national democrats, they had scant evidence to go off of (a webpage with Obama praising Childers was the best they could do?). Harris has some better material. Kratovil had Gov. Martin O’Malley at his kickoff, several photos with him on his website and has told the Star Democrat "I want to be an ally of the Governor in Washington." O’Malley is significantly less popular than President Bush in the First District right now.