The Gilchrest effect on the First

What will U.S. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s refusal to endorse the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain matter to the race for his House seat?

At this point, no one on either side doubts that Gilchrest will end up endorsing Democrat Frank Kratovil, whether out of ideological agreement or spite for the Republican Party.

Judging by his treatment of McCain, assume the latter.

The Kratovil camp would likely prefer for Gilchrest to whole-heartedly back McCain. Unless the map completely changes with turnout unlike anything ever before, this district will go for McCain by a large margin.

In order to win in a presidential year, they have to rely on a lot of split-ticket voting. That means they need to send a message to independents, moderate Republicans and Dixiecrats that GOP nominee Andy Harris is a radical – far out of line with his party’s nominee and the man they were used to voting for, Wayne Gilchrest. They need to make sure that Gilchrest is still viewed as a member of the Republican Party when he lends them his endorsement.

This is by no means a safe bet. GOP primary voters largely abandoned Gilchrest, giving him the lowest percentage of the vote for an incumbent in a non-redistricting related primary this century.

The question is whether many general election voters see Wayne as a Republican. Chances are they still do, but with Gilchrest refusing to back McCain, that could very well change.

And he wouldn’t dare back Barack Obama… or would he?

Don’t forget that with a new administration come the spoils of lots of new jobs. A Democrat who casts himself as post-partisan will need some Republicans who see themselves similarly.

But if the First’s current electoral climate persists, that would not bode well for Kratovil’s goal of reaching the House, nor Gilchrest’s of stopping Harris.